AI Capex 泡沫仪表盘

把“AI 硬件是不是快到泡沫拐点”拆成五条证据链：现金流透支、收入闭合、信用市场、真实需求、供应链传导。数据只读本地缓存；actual 和 forecast 分开显示。

ORANGE · 泡沫压力分

公式透明化，不是概率。当前主要来自收入缺口与 forecast 路径；actual 仍是 YELLOW。

1. 首屏判决 as-of local cache · generated 2026-06-25 12:46

Actual FCF / Capex 0.56 2025Q4: FCF $208B / Capex $372B · 开始透支现金流

Forecast first ORANGE 2026Q1 FCF/Capex ≤ 0.50 的第一期 forecast

AI Revenue Gap 2.8x AI revenue run-rate 170-220B vs capex/depreciation gap 480-600B

Current Tier T-1 WATCH (build hedge) last review 2026-06-16

默认动作： 不追 AI 硬件泡沫；保留弹药；只在 actual 数据刷新后升级/降级。现在的 bear case 不是“今晚崩”，而是 2026E/2027E 资金链压力会被二级市场提前定价。

hyperscaler_quarterly latest actual 仍停在 2025Q4；2026Q1 在文件注释里提到 actual，但 quarters[] 标为 forecast。
CDS 本地数据最后更新 2026-06-16；若用于下单前判断，需要刷新。
AI revenue 数据最后更新 2026-05-10；OpenAI/Anthropic 最新 ARR/GM 未自动刷新。

2. 现金流透支 AMZN + META + GOOG + MSFT · USD billions

Latest actual cash gap $164B Capex - FCF，正数越大越需要外部融资或牺牲回购

Forecast first RED 2026Q2 FCF/Capex ≤ 0.30 的第一期 forecast

Hyperscaler source 2026-05-07-r2-verified 本地 JSON 声明日期；不是自动 live feed

Quarter	NI	FCF	Capex	Cash gap	FCF/Capex
2024Q1actual	$270B	$220B	$145B	$-75B	1.52 · GREEN
2024Q2actual	$285B	$230B	$165B	$-65B	1.39 · GREEN
2024Q3actual	$297B	$232B	$195B	$-37B	1.19 · GREEN
2024Q4actual	$309B	$234B	$220B	$-14B	1.06 · GREEN
2025Q1actual	$320B	$230B	$250B	$20B	0.92 · GREEN
2025Q2actual	$330B	$220B	$290B	$70B	0.76 · GREEN
2025Q3actual	$340B	$215B	$330B	$115B	0.65 · YELLOW
2025Q4actual	$346B	$208B	$372B	$164B	0.56 · YELLOW
2026Q1forecast	$360B	$165B	$432B	$267B	0.38 · ORANGE
2026Q2forecast	$380B	$130B	$510B	$380B	0.25 · RED
2026Q3forecast	$400B	$100B	$600B	$500B	0.17 · RED
2026Q4forecast	$420B	$80B	$695B	$615B	0.12 · RED
2027Q1forecast	$440B	$50B	$770B	$720B	0.06 · RED
2027Q2forecast	$460B	$25B	$840B	$815B	0.03 · RED
2027Q3forecast	$480B	$-10B	$905B	$915B	-0.01 · RED

3. 收入闭合 AI revenue 能否追上折旧 + IRR

AI run-rate 170-220B 本地估算区间，不是 GAAP 合并收入

Required gap 480-600B capex 折旧 + IRR 缺口

Thesis holds 65% 本地 research synthesis 概率，不是模型输出

AI labs ARR / GM

Lab	ARR	GM	Pattern
OpenAISacra + The Information + Fortune (Altman Q4'25 公开)	$25.0B	?%	Q1 2026 季内翻倍 (12.7→25)
AnthropicFortune + VentureBeat + The Information	$30.0B	40%	agentic API 拐点 (Claude Code 单产品 $2.5B run-rate)
xAIindustry estimates	$1.5B	?%	Grok 订阅，无官方披露

Hyperscaler AI revenue claims

Company	Run-rate	YoY	Classification
MicrosoftMSFT FY26 Q3 IR	$37.0B	123%	AI #1 封闭循环 (Copilot 强制 bundle 嫌疑)
Google CloudAlphabet 10-Q Q1 2026	$25.0B	?%	AI #2 真增长 (gen-AI 产品 +800%)
AWSJassy Q1 2026 财报	$15.0B	28%	AI #2 (Bedrock 真使用量增长)
OracleOracle Q3 FY26 10-Q	$18.0B	76%	AI #2 (客户预付金锁定)
MetaMeta Q1 2026 + Sherwood 分析	30-50	33%	AI #2 直接进 P&L (唯一已可测量营收提升的玩家)

4. 信用市场 CDS + off-balance financing

CDS yellow+ 3 5 家里进入 yellow/orange/red 的数量

ORCL CDS 200 bp AI credit stress 前哨

Known off-balance debt $71.3B 6 vehicles in local file

CDS data as-of 2026-06-16 需付费源/人工回填；不要当实时 Bloomberg

Name	CDS	Y/O/R	Status	Distance
ORCLOracle	200 bp	180/250/400	YELLOW	200
METAMeta	65 bp	60/100/200	YELLOW	65
AMZNAmazon	50 bp	50/100/200	YELLOW	50
GOOGLAlphabet	30 bp	50/100/200	GREEN	30
MSFTMicrosoft	30 bp	40/80/150	GREEN	30

Off-balance vehicles

Vehicle	Debt	Deal size	Closed	Structure
Meta Hyperion JVMETA	$26.0B	$29.0B	2025-10	JV with Blue Owl Capital — Blue Owl 80% equity / Meta 20% equity, $26B debt amortizing to
Meta Sopaipilla ProjectMETA	$11.0B	$13.0B	2026-Q2 in progress	JV with Morgan Stanley + JPMorgan, $13B for Texas (El Paso) data center — same SPV pattern
Stargate (OpenAI/Oracle/SoftBank)ORCL + OpenAI + SoftBank + MGX	estimated $100-150B aggregate over 5yr	$300.0B	2025-09 ongoing	$300B/5yr Oracle compute commitment to OpenAI; OpenAI also has $22.4B contract with CoreWe
Apollo / Valor / xAIxAI (operator) + Valor (owner) + Apollo (lender)	$3.5B	$5.4B	2026-01	Apollo $3.5B capital solution backing Valor's $5.4B GB200 acquisition leased triple-net to
CoreWeave debt stackCoreWeave (operator)	$18.8B	$20.8B	2025-09 expanded 2026-01	$18.81B in vendor debt (Sept 2025) + $2B Nvidia investment Jan 2026 + $22.4B OpenAI contra
Crusoe + Lambda combined facilitiesCrusoe + Lambda (operators)	$12.0B	$12.0B	2025-2026 ongoing	Combined >$12B debt facilities exclusively for Blackwell deployments

5. 真实需求与供应链传导不是所有泡沫都没有真实需求

DC vacancy 1.3% 低 vacancy 支撑 bull case

Pre-lease 79% 高 pre-lease 表示真实需求仍强

NAND proxy +0.2% avg $20.683 · DRAMeXchange snapshot 2026-06-09

DDR5 RDIMM 32GB $1075.0 +3.9% weekly

内存股价 ← HBM/DRAM 收入 ← Hyperscaler capex ← OCF + 外部融资 Bull 证据：低 vacancy + 高 pre-lease + 内存价格强。 Bear 证据：FCF/Capex 下滑 + AI revenue gap + CDS/off-balance 扩张。

6. 决策门槛从讨论变成可执行触发器

继续持有 / 不砍

真实需求未破，FCF/Capex actual 仍非 RED，CDS 无系统性 RED。当前是 WATCH，不是“立刻跑路”。

停止追涨

只要 revenue gap 仍是 2.5-3.5x 且 forecast 路径进 ORANGE/RED，就不因硬件短期暴涨加仓。

升级防守

Q2/Q3 actual 刷新后，若 FCF/Capex ≤ 0.5、ORCL CDS > 250、capex guidance cut 三者任二，进入减仓/对冲评估。

7. 泡沫压力分公式可争论，但不能黑箱

score = 30% * FCF/Capex stress + 25% * credit stress + 25% * AI revenue gap + 15% * forecast path + 5% * demand contradiction adjustment 当前：FCF 40, credit 45, revenue 80, forecast 75, demand 5 → 55/100

8. 数据卫生真实来源优先；本页不联网刷新

Local source	Declared as-of	File mtime	Status
hyperscaler_quarterly.json	2026-05-07-r2-verified	2026-06-22 09:10	OK
ai_revenue_monitoring.json	2026-05-10	2026-05-10 15:54	OK
cds_monitoring.json	2026-06-16	2026-06-16 09:03	OK
rebalance_triggers.json	2026-05-12	2026-05-12 18:38	OK
rebalance_state.json	2026-06-16	2026-06-16 09:04	OK
datacenter_supply.json	2026-05-07	2026-05-07 11:44	OK
off_balance_sheet.json	2026-05-09	2026-05-09 13:14	OK
supply_side_assumptions.json	2026-05-10	2026-05-10 15:54	OK
dram_prices.json	not declared	2026-06-09 09:24	OK

下单前 killer condition：刷新公司 filings / earnings call / CDS / OpenAI-Anthropic 最新披露。这个 HTML 是本地态势图，不是实时行情终端。